The Big Economic Factors Behind the Boise Real Estate Market

March 25, 2010 on 1:54 am | In News | Comments Off

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter as businesses drew down inventories at a much slower pace and boosted investment, a government report showed on Friday. Based on this good news, the Boise real estate market will be buoyed by the gains in economy.

With Gross Domestic Product growth projected at a satisfying 5.7%, based on Commerce Department data from the 4th quarter, but actually came in at 5.9%, surpassing many expectations. It was still the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2% annual rate in the third quarter. Adding these contributing factors in with local ones, will help stabilize the Boise real estate market.

Major news agencies had indicated that the latter portion of 2009 posted a projected growth of 5.7%, including a total of all products and services inside United States borders. With the recovery seemingly in full swing in the last few months of 2009, our nation seemed to be emerging from the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, but that growth has been stymied somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. A sharp brake in the pace at which businesses liquidated inventories combined with increased spending on equipment and software to boost growth in the fourth quarter, offsetting lackluster consumer spending and residential investment. As the nation goes, so goes Boise real estate.

Growth was projected to be about 2.2%, but has been revised down to about 1.9%, which shows that growth has been due to reduced inventories and not so much a return of market demand. Business inventories fell only $16.9 billion in fourth quarter instead of $33.5 billion estimated last month. They dropped $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The inventory changes alone were responsible for a 3.88% difference in GDP. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. As home materials companies liquidated inventory, Boise real estate reaped some benefit from that.

As a whole, the year 2009 featured the most dramatic decrease in GDP, at 2.4%, since the post World War II recovery of 1946. In the final three months of 2009, consumer spending increased at a 1.7% rate, rather than the 2% pace reported in January. That was below the 2.8% rate in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” auto purchase program. In the fourth quarter, consumer spending – which normally accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity — contributed 1.23 percentage points to GDP. As the national economy contracted, the Boise real estate market contracted right along with it.

The fourth quarter GDP numbers increased, despite a slumping commercial real estate market, due to significant investment in software and required equipment by businesses. With business investment being much higher than the projected 2.9%, at 6.5% actually, improvement is on the way. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. Spending on new home construction grew at a slower 5% rate in the fourth quarter, instead of 5.7% estimated last month. With growth as high as 18.9%, the third quarter was a busy one. On the back of stronger exports and imports, which left a trade gap adding .3% to the GDP, the fourth quarter boasted better numbers than otherwise anticipated. As GDP indicates our national economic states, Boise real estate eagerly awaits is significant turn around.

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